The invention relates to a method for analyzing risks in a technical project for developing or manufacturing a technical system or technical components or a technical process.
The analysis of risks in technical projects is one of the most important processes for reducing project risks and the associated potential cost of errors. Nowadays, guidelines are increasingly applied at company level that define the handling of such project risks for balance sheet purposes. An example of these guidelines, which every public limited company must observe, comprises the accounting principles according to US-GAAP (United States Generally Accepted Accounting Principles). These guidelines provide a concrete description of the US accounting regulations and the associated processes. In order to be able to include project risks in a suitable manner in financial balance sheets, the technical risks in the project must be estimated in a suitable manner, where the accounting regulations do indeed specify how risks are to be included in the balance sheet but do not explain how qualitatively determined technical risks are to be converted into quantitatively recordable risks for use in the balance sheet.
At the technical level, a large number of methods for technical risk analysis already exists, such as the well-known FMEA method (FMEA=Failure Mode and Effects Analysis), for example. These methods are primarily applied in the field of product development, but bear no relation to an assessment of economic viability, that is to say the risks are only evaluated qualitatively and not quantitatively as well.
However, it is desirable with regard to the major projects implemented by a company that risk assessments are implemented from the company viewpoint that also evaluate the existing technical project risks in economic terms. In the case of very large projects, in fact, unconsidered risks involving a large amount of economic damage can result in an incorrect balance sheet classification, and in the event of the occurrence of such risks, this can also bring with it the insolvency of the company in certain circumstances.